The progress of the southwest monsoon over parts of Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi is likely to be slow as “large-scale features are not favourable” for its advance, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
Wind pattern by numerical models does not indicate any favourable condition for sustained rainfall over the region during the forecast period, it said.
The IMD had on Thursday said the impact of mid-latitude westerly on the monsoon is likely to continue till June 23 and hence its advance into Rajasthan, remaining parts Punjab, Haryana and Delhi is not likely during the period.
It had said the monsoon flow pattern is likely to organise and strengthen gradually between June 26 and June 30, and the further advance to most parts of northwest India is likely during the same period.
The weather department had earlier predicted that the wind system may reach Delhi by June 15, around 12 days early. Normally, the monsoon reaches Delhi by June 27 and covers the entire country by July 8.
Last year, the wind system had reached Delhi on June 25 and covered the entire country by June 29, according to Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency.
Mr Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather said chances are that Delhi will get monsoonal showers only around the usual date of June 27.
On Sunday, the Met office said isolated “heavy to very heavy” rainfall is very likely over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the next 24 hours under the influence of a low-pressure area.
Moderate to severe thunderstorms accompanied by frequent cloud-to-ground lightning is very likely over the region during the period. This may cause injuries leading to casualties to people and animals staying outdoors, the weather department said.
Isolated heavy showers are also very likely over Uttarakhand on Monday under the influence of a western disturbance as a trough in mid-tropospheric levels and monsoonal easterlies.
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