Conditions are not favourable for the further advancement of monsoon into Rajasthan, some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi till the last week of June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
However, there could be slow progress into some more parts of Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh during the next two to three days due to favourable local features, it said.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Diu, Surat, Nandurbar, Bhopal, Nowgong, Hamirpur, Barabanki, Bareilly, Saharanpur, Ambala and Amritsar.
“The impact of mid-latitude westerly on monsoon is likely to continue till June 23, and hence the advance of monsoon into Rajasthan, remaining parts Punjab, Haryana and Delhi is not likely during the same period,” the IMD forecast stated.
It said the monsoon flow pattern is likely to organise and strengthen gradually between June 26 and June 30 and the further advancement to most parts of northwest India is likely during the same period.
The weather department had earlier predicted that the wind system may reach Delhi by June 15, 12 days ahead of schedule.
Normally, monsoon reaches Delhi by June 27 and covers the entire country by July 8.
Last year, the wind system had reached Delhi on June 25 and covered the entire country by June 29, according to Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency.
Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather said westerly winds have been blocking the advancement of monsoon in northwest India for the last three to four days.
“These winds will persist for another week. Hence, chances are that Delhi will get monsoonal showers only around the usual date of June 27,” he said.
The IMD said, “Moderate to severe” thunderstorms and frequent “cloud-to-ground lightning” are very likely over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand on Thursday and Friday.
“This may cause injuries leading to casualties among people and animals outdoors,” it said.
Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy showers is very likely over Uttarakhand during the next two days under the influence of a western disturbance, the IMD said.
“A cyclonic circulation lies over Gangetic West Bengal and neighbourhood. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim and Odisha during the next two to three days,” the MeT office said.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over eastern Uttar Pradesh in the next two-three days under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over the region and its neighbourhood.
Isolated “extremely heavy” rainfall is predicted over Konkan and Goa and central Maharashtra during the next 24 hours as a result of an offshore trough running from south Karnataka to north Kerala coast.
Rainfall recorded below 15 mm is considered light, between 15 and 64.5 mm is moderate, between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm heavy and between 115.6 and 204.4 very heavy. Rainfall above 204.4 mm is considered extremely heavy.
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