Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Offense will prevail

Home » Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Offense will prevail

The Red Sox find themselves in a familiar spot as their season is on the line, but unlike in past situations, Nathan Eovaldi is going to pitch on the road against the Astros on two days’ rest. 

Eovaldi was used out of the bullpen in Game 4 and surrendered four runs while getting two outs in the ninth inning as a tie game turned into a seven-run loss. 

The Red Sox have won all three of Eovaldi’s playoff starts in Houston since the 2018 postseason, but overall this season Eovaldi was not the same away from Boston. He posted a 4.21 ERA with opponents hitting .271 off of him on the road compared to a 3.47 home ERA and .247 OBA. Also, he allowed less than 0.5 home runs per nine innings at Fenway compared to 1.2 home runs per nine innings on the road. 

Between the regular season and postseason, the Astros are averaging more than 5.4 runs per game, which leads the majors. They have scored at least five runs in 11 of their 12 games in October. 

The Red Sox and Astros should provide some runs in Game 6.
The Red Sox and Astros should provide some runs in Game 6.
AP

The Red Sox and Astros had the two worst regular-season bullpen ERAs among teams that made the playoffs, and all four games in which Eovaldi has pitched this postseason have gone Over, so look for this ALCS to have a sixth straight game go over the total. 

The play: Red Sox-Astros total, Over 8.5 runs.


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